MINING THE ASTEROIDS Part 18/POSSIBLY IRRITATING ESSAYS: Asteroid Wars?

Initially, I started this series because of the 2021 World Science Fiction Convention, DisCON which I WOULD have been attending in person if I felt safe enough to do so in person AND it hadn’t been changed to the week before the Christmas Holidays…HOWEVER, as time passed, I knew that this was a subject I was going to explore because it interests me…

On August 21, 2023, I reported this: https://faithandsciencefiction.blogspot.com/2023/08/nasa-understanding-solar-system-or-bold.html. The headline reads, in part: “US-China space war over mining asteroids…” Below, follow the link to a 2022 article in the U.S. Sun – same subject.

Currently, it seems to be that the US has continued its stranglehold on all things space – though China and India have landed probes on the Moon and Russia crashed on the Moon (again – though they are the only program anywhere that has successfully landed a probe on Venus…perhaps a testament of the toughness of the Russian psyche (absolutely no pre-pun intended.)

Speaking of Psyche: the US launched a probe to the asteroid 16 Psyche in October of 2023. Ostensibly the mission to Psyche (expected to conclude in 2029) is to “…study Psyche’s exposed core…providing insights into our own planet’s core, the mantle on top, how they both formed, and the conditions during the birth of our solar system.”

That sounds like a noble, NASA-like mission. The exploration of space. Seems perfectly innocent. But when NASA began to hatch the plan, there was a slightly more…lucrative temptation. NOT just the “exploration of space”, but there was something about Psyche that made the eyes of metals investors sparkle like diamonds: “…our Earth-based radar and spectral observations indicate Psyche is either nearly all-metal or a mix of metal and rock, and is either way at least twice as dense as most asteroids…”

While PURELY SPECULATIVE, ruminations on the composition of Psyche produced statements like this: “Earlier in the project, a reporter asked her how much an asteroid like Psyche might be worth given its high metal content. The numbers ranged as high as $10 quintillion.” [ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasa-launches-asteroid-probe-psyche/] While it’s a gamble, investors the world over have always been challenged by a good bet. Even the investment site pointed out, “…even if 16 Psyche isn't the orbiting goldmine it was once thought to be, the asteroid belt has long been understood to be full of riches.” (Motley Fool)

16 Psyche might be the launching point of a new commodities race. While the “big names” in space are the obvious ones – first Russia, then the US, now China, India, as well as a HOST of other countries (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_government_space_agencies). And then we have to mention the PRIVATE companies that are getting into position to exploit the riches of the Solar System – besides SpaceX and Blue Origin, there are another half-dozen private companies who are seriously designing space vehicles to compete with the bigger companies.

The fact is that NO place on Earth was colonized for benevolent, nature-appreciation. From Indigenous cultures around the world to NYSE companies – Humans have explored a teensy bit out of curiosity; nut our main reason for exploration is to USE IT; to make a profit; to GET SOMETHING FOR OURSELVES.

Space won’t be any different. While most people would like to see a society like the one in STAR TREK grow, STAR WARS is most likely to be the true end result. Even STAR TREK has to create baddies to drive their shows and movies. STAR WARS just did away with any pretense and went straight to the thing that drives Human society: war.

So, as to the coming space war – and don’t try to convince yourself otherwise, there will be one! It might just be starting sooner than you think though. There IS wealth in space. Some of the estimates are jaw-droppingly amazing. Even the starriest-eyed kiddo knows however, that SPACE WILL BE DANGEROUS! People from Earth have died in space – and more will follow.

America’s initial launch to “study 16 Psyche” isn’t to just “look at it”; it’s to check on the feasibility of MINING THE ASTEROIDS; in particular, this ultra-dense object that will take a specially designed spacecraft SIX YEARS TO REACH. The thing cost over 2.2 BILLION DOLLARS. Since when have Humans EVER spent that much money just to “see something”? At the most base level, there is at LEAST a small amount of greed driving this mission.

And where you have greed – you have conflict. How will that conflict manifest? Missiles to blow probes out of the sky? Nah. Then the country that did the shooting would have to build their own vulnerable ship…

What about HACKING? Maybe that’s why Russia hasn’t sent their own probes out – they’re well-known as a nation of hackers! There’s even a quote in a highly authoritative movie that states, “Are all hackers Russian?” “Honey, there aren’t any Russians who aren’t hackers.” (Oceans 8) All they need to do is hack into NASA or any other space exploration country’s ship; or into any of the private space outfits – and they could just sell the information (or their silence). Why waste money on spaceships that keep blowing up?

My main points are:

Gigantic amounts of money are being spent and invested.
Prestige will land on anyone able to successfully do ANYTHING in space.
Humans are competitive.
As soon as you add all of that together, you get the possibility of CONFLICT.

There WILL be a space war – not just like the “race to space” but a shooting war. People will die – not by accident, but by intent.

Does it seem like a dark vision of the future? Yeah, well as much as I’d LOVE for it not to happen, my “faith in Humanity” has experienced a massive amount of erosion as I’ve gotten older…

U.S. Sun News: https://www.the-sun.com/tech/4736656/us-china-space-war-mining-asteroids-superpowers/
Fundamental Resource: (A general Wikipedia post detailing what the authors currently know about asteroid mining: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining)
Noted Resources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_asteroid_close_approaches_to_Earth, https://www.pharostribune.com/news/local_news/article_7fcd3ea5-3c14-533f-a8d5-9bf629922f34.html, https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/29/like-asteroid-mining-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/ https://www.nps.gov/wrbr/learn/historyculture/theroadtothefirstflight.htm, https://hackaday.com/2019/03/27/extraterrestrial-excavation-digging-holes-on-other-worlds/, https://www.planetary.org/space-missions/every-small-worlds-mission
Image: https://everydayastronaut.com/wp-content/uploads/Post-Launch-Reviews/CNSA/Long-March-2C_Xinhua-1200x800.jpeg